Now that we are into May, and the hangover from the NCAA tournament is behind us, it's time ot focus our attention on perhaps an even better college tournament, and that's the Baseball NCAA tournament, and the College World Series. For almost 60 years the slogan for college baseball has been "The Road to Omaha", and thankully it looks like for at least the next 25 years, it'll stay that way. For those who don't know, Omaha is in the process of getting a brand new 25,000 seat stadium built. They've already gotten the OK from various city organizations and governing bodies, and this week the NCAA gave its OK to the idea. Hopefully by the time the 2008 CWS gets underway, all I's should be dotted, and all T's crossed to keep the CWS in Omaha for at least another generation.
However, this article is to focus on what teams to look out for as the college baseball regular season winds to a close in the next couple of weeks. We'll begin with the Big 12. Right now the Big 12 stands having as few as one, or as many as three get a to 8 national seed. NU, OSU, and Texas A&M have all seperated themselves from the pack. My guess is, that the winner of the A&M and NU series will get a top 8 national seed, as they will be seen as the conference winner. I don't think there's a scenario that'll give the Big 12 three top 8 seeds, but should the loser of the NU/A&M series, or OSU win the Big 12 tourney, the conference may just get a second national seeded team. Right now, I would say NU gets the national seeded nod, because they get A&M at home. After those top three teams, the Big 12 has been struggling to get a constant middle of the pack squad. Missouri has been in the middle of a losing streak, Texas is under .500 in conference play, and Baylor and Oklahoma will have to pull off a stong finish to the season, and get a win or two in the conference tournament. At the end of the day, the Big 12 gets 6 teams in ( NU, A&M, OSU, Mizzou, Texas, Baylor/OU which ever teams finishes stronger). The conference will get three teams to host regionals, and I think just one national seeded team.
Moving onto the other big baseball conferences, next with the ACC. This conference is completely top heavy with three teams that could be the best in all of college baseball. Florida St, North Carolina, and perhaps the best team in the country, Miami all stand great chances at being a top 8 seed. After those three it gets kind of muddled a bit. North Carolina St. is the best of the rest, and in most other conferences would be considered the favorit, however, there is just one more team above .500 in conference play, and that's Viriginia, whileGeorgia Tech sits at an even conference record. So you're looking at possibly 3 national seeds from the ACC, but just six teams in overall. In my opinion, though, the bottom of the ACC will hurt too much in the committee's eyes, and leave the conference with just two national seeds, FSU and Miami, while North Carolina will host a regional, an NCSU still has a decent shot at hosting a regional as well. I wouldn't be surprised if two, or three teams from this conference get to Omaha.
The SEC. Right now, absolutely zero SEC teams deserve a national seed, but due to college baseball's deep ties to the SEC, the conference champion will get the nod. Right now that would be Georgia, who's got the best record in the conference, but have a horrible regular season mark. They are 15-5 in conference, which is very good this time of year, but they haven't topped the 30 win mark yet. Overall the SEC will probably get two teams to host regionals, Georgia, and perhaps Kentucky if they finish the season strong. Sweeping LSU will help a lot for the Wildcats. Speaking of LSU, the Tigers look to finally break their drought this decade, and are getting back to where the program was a decade ago. They won't host a regional this year, but it's good for college baseball to get it's premier program back in the tournament. Because of the historical ties to college baseball, the SEC will get over half their teams in the tourney. However if this was the Big 10, only 4 would deserve a bid. The teams making it from the SEC will be Georgia, Florida, Vandy, Kentucky, South Carolina, LSU, and Ole Miss. An 8th team could make the tourney, but the middle of the SEC is so average this season it's tough to pick that team out. Georgia should host a regional, as should Vandy, and perhaps Kentucky.
The Pac 10 is in the same position as the SEC. One great team (Arizona St.) and a bunch of average teams. ASU will get a national seed, however the Pac 10 may get just 3 other teams into the NCAA's. Stanford probably gets a bid, as they'll finish second in the conference, followed by two time defending champion OSU. After that the rest of the conference is at or below .500. Still one team will put themselves into the tourney with a strong finish to the season. The Pac 10 gets on national seed, and just one team to host a regional.
For the rest of the conferences, we'll just focus on the top teams. From the WCC, San Diego should get a national seed, and will definately host a regional, Michigan won't get a national seed, despite a solid record, but will get to host a regional, which is pretty big for a school that plays outside that far north. Usually it's Minnesota who takes over the Big 10, mostly because they play indoors, but it seems Michigan has been committed to taking their baseball program to the next step. In the Big South Coastal Carolina deserves a national seed, and I think they get it this year, since the Pac 10 and the SEC are down this year. The Big West this year is a mess, and probably doesn't have a team that deserves to host a regional, but Cal St. Fullerton will probably come out with one. The Colonial has three teams worthy of making noise in the NCAA's with William and Mary, James Madison, and NC Wilmington. My guess is none of the teams will host, because they don't have adequate facilities. In the C-USA, Rice will be a national seed, while Tulane, Southern Miss and East Carolina all will make the tourney. The MAC is all screwed up. Team with the best conference record is 11 games UNDER .500. The Missouri Valley has 4 teams worthy of an NCAA tourney big, but only two will make it. Most likely WSU, and MSU, with an outside chance WSU could host a regional. In the SWAC, Jacksonville St. would probably host a regional, but probably get passed over for a program with better facilities. Still, I wouldn't want to face them in the regional round.
So lets recap the top 8 national seeds the way I have it. NU, ASU, FSU, Miami, San Diego, Coastal Carolina, Rice, ???
That 8th team is still up for grabs, with the slight edge right now to North Carolina. A&M still has a great chacne, and Georgia could sneak in there, if they get on a hot streak and win the SEC tournament. Like I said, a lot baseball left to be played, but things are starting to take shape.
Friday, May 2, 2008
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2 comments:
Really sticking your neck out there on these projections Andrew. Coastal Carolina isnt even in the top 20 of rankings that I just checked. And if you think that Rice, Coastal, and San Diego are all getting national seeds you're crazy. Three smaller conference teams. I dont think so. I say Stanford will be getting a national seed. Get Coastal out of there. Rice and San Diego are legit. Right now I have my eight seeds as: Miami, FSU ASU, Stanford, Rice, UC Irvine, Texas A&M, and UNC will get the last seed. ACC has the top 3 teams in the country, they have to get national seeds. Especially if they all make it to the ACC conference semis. Mark it down ladies.
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