2008 Baseball preview

Hey everyone, this is Andy's friend Jake. I style myself a baseball expert so Andy asked me to post some baseball stuff. So for my first post I thought I would post my division winners. Along with that something positive for each team along with a concern. Bold shows who wins the division and italics is for the wild card winner.

-Al East

Boston Red Sox
Good: Returning every key starter on a championship team. Key rookies should be play all season long too
Concerns: Pitching. How bad is Beckett’s back? Will it flair up. Schilling is probably done for the season. He was a key contributor and innings eater. Innings limits for Bucholtz and Lester
New York Yankees
Good: New manager. Joe Girardi will be a fiery disposition to the team. Players under Joe Torre the last year came to camp out of shape. Using the bullpen could become a key
Concern: Who’s going to eat the innings up this year? All three of the Yankee’s young guns are going to have innings limits this year. Near the end of the season, who’s going to be pitching?
Toronto Blue Jays
Good: Starting pitching depth. Easily could have the best top 3 guys in the majors. All throw hard and have great braking pitches.
Concern: Injury concerns all over. Will B.J. Ryan be back to what he was? Is Vernon Wells shoulder fine? Is Scott Rolen’s shoulder going to hold up? Will A.J Burner go to the DL?
Tamp Bay Rays
Good: Added pitching depth with Matt Garza in the off season. Top prospect Evan Langoria should hit the majors by end of May.
Concern: Scott Kazmir’s elbow. When an elbow barks or is strained Tommy John is more likely. It is especially true with guys who throw sliders. Will that happen this year?
Baltimore Orioles
Good: Andy McPhail has taken over. That means Peter Angelos the worst owner in baseball isn’t making decision any longer.
Concern: Every position other then right field and second base there are concerns about. Will Daniel Cabrera ever live up to his hype?

-Al Central
Detroit Tigers
Good: Traded for a future HOF player in Miguel Cabrera. Tiger possess a dominate lineup that is easily the best in baseball.
Concern: Pitching, both in the bullpen and starting rotation. Who is going to get the ball to Todd Jones the closer? There are health issues all over the rotation. Bonderman’s elbow, Kenny Rogers shoulder and age. Can Dontrelle’s era go over 6?
Cleveland
Good: Just like Boston, returning a very good team without losing any major pieces.
Concern: Carmona’s innings. When a guy jumps more then 30 innings from his career high they have problems the next year. Carmona's jumped 58 innings.
Kansas City Royals
Good: Trey Hillman as new manager, he’s a proven winner. Buddy Bell was just going through the motions. Hillman will improve this team month to month and will get them closer to making a play run next season
Concerns: Butler and Gordon. The organization is banking on both of these players and there are questions about both. Gordon has a hitch in his swing that wasn’t exploited at college or in the minors but was exploited at the MLB level. They are tinkering with it at the end of last year and this spring. I’m hesitant of doing that but it needs to be done. Butler’s problem is his weight, needs to slim down and play a position. You don’t want your DH being 22 years old.
Chicago White Sox
Good: A good lineup got better with the addition of Orlando Cabrera. He also will improve their defense as he is a two time gold glove winner.
Concerns: Other then Mark Burhle who is going to win games? Javier Vasquez is good but he never seems to put it together. Contreras had a good season a couple years ago but is back to a back of the end guy. They traded away an innings eater in Garland.
Minnesota Twins
Good: Locked up Mauer, Morneau and Nathan to long term contracts this offseason.
Concern: Who’s going to pitch for this organization? Liriano won’t be back to 100% until mid summer. Boof Boonser is a good pitcher but he isn’t a front line starter. Kevin Slowry is good but he also isn’t a front line starter.

-AL West
Seattle Mariners
Good: They have the best 1-2 punch of any team.
Concern: Who’s going to score runs? They have a few good players highlighted by Ichiro but Sextson and Beltre have been busts.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Good: Depth at starting pitching. They also have one of the best defensive outfields in the game. Small ball is key and they have players that fit their style
Concern: While they have lots of starting pitching, Lackey is now hurt along with Escobar. Escobar has a tear in his shoulder, more then likely he will be done for the season. Is Lackey’s injury going to linger?
Oakland A’s
Good: Got more for Dan Haren then Twins got for Santana who is the better pitcher
Concern: experience and leadership. The A’s are lacking it other then Eric Chavez. Will Chavez ever be the player he was?
Texas Rangers
Good: Daniels the GM has made some good trades that have strengthen Texas future.
Concern: Pitching as it always is. It is this team’s weakness as it has been since Nolan Ryan has been there. They need to develop it instead of trying to buy it on the FA market.

-NL East
Atlanta
Good: They have pitching depth again in Atlanta. Bullpen should also be improved with the return of Mike Gonzalez from injury.
Concern: Mark Kotsay. They need him in CF to solidify the outfield. His back will be a concern all season long
Philadelphia Phillies
Good: One of the deepest lineups especially in the NL. Pat Burrell is in a contract year and could have a huge season.
Concern: Brad Lidge. They need this guy to be the closer so that Tom Gordon can be the setup man and Bret Myers stays in the rotation.
New York Met
Good: Have 2 of the top players in the game in Reyes and Wright. Both are young and should still improve.
Concern: Johan Santana. I believe that he is going to have arm problems this year. Last season he didn’t throw his slider for the last 2 months at the end of the season. The twins could have afforded them instead they spent the money on Nathan. That should raise red flags to met fans.
Washington Nationals
Good: Moving into a new ball park, it has to be better then JFK stadium.
Concern: Who’s going to pitch for them? They have to have the worst pitching at the MLB level.
Florida Marlins
Good: Cut payroll by trading their two star players. It’s the Marlin way. They also finally got financing for a new stadium.
Concern: Inexperience. Most of the players don’t have more then 2 year MLB experience. Starting pitchers have health concerns.

-NL Central
Chicago Cubs
Good: A good deep lineup with a decent starting staff should equal a divisional crown. Japanese player Fukedome could be an impact bat and ROTY candidate.
Concern: Curses, bartman 2 appearing? Also the lack of a dominate starter, Zambrano is good but he isn’t a dominate number 1.
Milwaukee Brewers
Good: A very good core of young players should make the Brewers good for some time. Braun could be an even better hitter now that he doesn’t have to worry about making 40 errors a season
Concern: Injuries to starting pitchers. Ben Sheets needs to be healthy for this team to beat the cubs. Someone in the bullpen has to step up or it’s a huge weakness.
Cincinnati Reds
Good: Dusty Baker should improve the team. Some young pitching seems to be coming along.
Concern: Is there enough pitching to last this whole season or is it another year away. They need to win now with Griffey getting older and Dunn in his walk year.
Houston Astros
Good: A good offense should score a lot of runs. Hunter Pence looks like the real deal.
Concern: Who’s going to pitch behind Roy Oswalt? No pitching at all in the starting role.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Good: New ownership is moving the team in the right direction. That is to draft and scout talent.
Concern: Almost all positions have question marks. Will Jason Bay rebound or is he now on the decline?

-NL West
Colorado Rockies
Good: They return everyone but Kaz Matsui. Tons of young talent here and most of it will be in its first full big league seasons.
Concern: Is this the team that dominated in September and October or the team that was just average for a majority of the season? Also can they hit away from Coors field?
Arizona Diamondbacks
Good: Good young team that should be getting better. A very good rotation lead by Brandon Webb and Dan Haren.
Concern: Will the bullpen which got them to the playoffs be as good as last year? Will all the talent they have live up to the hype? Is Eric Byrnes going to regress or stay at this high level?
Los Angeles Dodgers
Good: Joe Torre should be a calming influence to a divided clubhouse. Good starting pitching should keep them in games.
Concern: Who is going to hit for power in this lineup? 3rd base is a weakness until Nomar comes back or prospect Andy Laroche comes back from injury. Is Andruw Jones slide going to continue or does he have a bounce back year?
San Diego Padres
Good: Padres have great starting pitching lead by Jake Peavey. Chris Young keeps on improving and Greg Maddux is just a magician with the ball. Mark Prior could be a huge mid season call up.
Concern: Other then Adrian Gonzalez I don’t like any of their hitters. Who is going to score runs?
San Francisco Giants
Good: They finally let Barry Bonds walk away. That guy is a club house killer. Some of the best starting pitching in the game resides in here. It should keep them in games.
Concern: When Bengie Molina is your cleanup hitter there is a problem. Aaron Rowland is a good player but did he have a career year or is he going to perform that well with the bat again?

Well there you go. I will be posting a lot about the royals throughout the season. For those of you who don't know, the Royals got their own T.V. network. This year out of the 162, 88 are going to be in HD. Opening day is just 2 day away, everyone enjoy!

Watching two games at once (take 5)

The good news is the upset is back. The bad news is, I'm sure most peoples' brackets look like mince meat right now. I know my bracket does, and it's all because of a guy named Curry. Looking back, I should have stuck with my own advice, and took in all the info the bracket gives me. Had I, I might have chosen Davidson to make it to the sweet 16. Instead I went with my gut, and now have a pitiful bracket. The weekend started well, getting West Virginia and 'Nova into the sweet 16, but once Georgetown choked, I was finished. And again, the the aciton this weekend proved there isn't much of a difference between the Big conferences and everyone else.

So now what? Well for starters, if you are a non-BCS fan, be happy, because this is 2006 lite. Davidson, Western Kentucky and Xavier are all off to the Sweet 16. Almost the same as in 2006 when Gonzaga, Wichita St, George Mason and Bradley all moved on. Hopefully one of those three teams this year crash the Elite 8 party, and realistically Davidson and Xavier could get to the Final 4 with another two solid outings. My advice to people who have their brackets in the trash can this morning, is to sit back and enjoy the show. Following the 2007 tourney, I thought the upset was a thing of the past, but it's been given new life, and doesn't it make the NCAA tourney just that much more fun to watch?

A fun little game you can play over the course of this week. If you read on any websites or hear any of the "experts" on TV talking how good Western Kentucky, Davidson, and 'Nova are, see if you can find that person's bracket predictions, and how far they have those two teams going. If any of them have those teams going one and done, realize they are full of Hershey stains.

I won't be giving a revised prediction, because I don't have an ego to feed. "Experts" who give you revised predictions are just trying to stroke their ego, and make you think they still know more than you do. Face it, if these guys were as smart as they like to tell people, they would have seen at least Davidson coming. With a few days off before the sweet 16 round of games, I'll focus my attention to other things in sports, but will get back to the tourney once the action takes place.

Viewing two games at once (take 4)

Darn it Stanford. You're not supposed to win when your coach gets sent packing in the first half, and you aren't supposed to win when your assistants are left drawing up a last second play. Had Marquette held on, I would have been sitting very pretty in every pool I'm in. Instead of having 14 of my sweet 16 teams alive, I'll have to settle for 13 as of right now. Anyways the action I saw yesterday

First off, I am officially worried about Wisconsin beating Georgetown. The Badgers aren't exactly an exciting team, but they do have enough flash to score 6-8 points in a hurry, and then sit on their lead with outstanding defense. Like I said they would, KSU looked flat. Yeah Michael Beasley got his points, but Bill Walker was frustrated all game, and KSU had no answers for 'Scin's smothering D. Meanwhile, KU looked less than impressive against UNLV. If the Rebels would have hit any shots in the second half, KU could have been in trouble, because it seemed for the most part they were going through the motions. It was a 5 point game with 12 minutes remaining, but UNLV went ice cold after that, and KU cruised. Two rather blah games if you ask me, because both winning teams showed potential to be world-beaters at times, and during other stretches looked no better than the teams they beat.

The rest of the action. No surprise from West Virginia. Duke got up early, but couldn't stand up to a much more athletic and physical team. Thank you Duke for proving my previous post about your overratedness being correct. Xavier gave me a scare, but I think they will be the cardiac kids of this tourney. UCLA, how can you allow A&M to play that close to you? Please say you were overlooking the Aggies, and already had your bags packed for Phoenix. Otherwise you're in for a rude awakening next weekend. i already covered Stanford, those bums. I am officially impressed with Wazzu. I am sorry Cougars for doubting your abilities. Chalk it up to Midwest Coast bias, and due to the fact you play in the Pac-10, and being overshadowed by the big dogs in your conference. Finally, thank you Michigan St. That was the shakiest Sweet 16 pick of any when I was filling out my brackets, but they showed that Tom Izzo is one heck of a tourney coach. Despite winning a title, he's had his program always under the national radar so to speak, and always exceeds potential.

Now today's games. The #1 seeds should come away with comfortable victories, but if yesterday's action proved anything, it's that you can't overlook your opponents. Still UNC should get a comfortable double digit win over Arkansas, and Memphis has to sweat it out, but pulls away late. Meanwhile, Tennessee should take care of Butler. I like Butler, their program, and what they've done for the non-BCS teams, but I'm sorry you were screwed in the selection process. Georgetown better win, that's all I have to say. Still Stephen Curry needed 40 to barley beat overrated Gonzaga, it'll take more than that to beat GT. Also, if Louisville plays to their potential, OU shouldn't be in this game. IMO OU played outside of their skin Friday against St. Joe's, and I don't see that happening a second time. Based on everything, but Friday's games, 'Nova should roll over Siena. However there has to be something to Siena if they beat up an SEC team like they did. Or maybe it's that Vandy was overrated, and deserved the #7 seed given to Butler, and Butler deserved their #4 seed. Yeah selection committee you screwed up big time on that call. Texas has just too much talent for Miami, and should win by double digits. Finally it's the game I'm sure most of the country didn't see coming, Western Kentucky vs San Diego. My advice is to sit back and enjoy the game, and hope for a close one. Thankfully we'll have our 2008 cinderella right here.

So the only game I'm remotely concerned about today is OU and the 'Ville, and maybe the Siena 'Nova matchup, mostly because Siena is an unknown. Like I said yesterday, if I get more than one game wrong, I'd be upset. So once again I've got 13 of my sweet 16 still alive with all my elite 8. If I stay my selections still hold up with 13 or even 12 of my sweet 16 available, I'll let you know how I'm sitting in my pools. Enjoy the basketball today.

More on the 'Zags

All right America, can we stop with the love affair around Gonzaga. I hope people realize their magical Elite 8 run is going to celebrate it's decade anniversary next season. That's right, it's been a decade since they screwed up everyone's brackets with the NCAA tourney runs. From 2002-2008 Gonzaga has just one Sweet 16 run. Their time of getting special treatment from the Big conference is over. They are now on the same level as every other non BCS team, and should be treated as such. It was a nice story a decade ago to see this small team from out of nowhere shock college basketball, but now they've just been plain boring, and predicitable.

Watching two games at once (take 3)

What a day. Friday March 21th is going to go down as one of the most memorable days in NCAA tourney history. It started off rather ordinary, Tennessee taking care of American, Miami looking strong in their beating of St. Mary's, while Gonzaga was holding off Davidson, and Western Kentucky was pulling off the 12-5 upset. Most people probably wouldn't have been all that surprised with the WKU score, especially since Drake lives and dies on the three. Then something happened. Stephen Curry decided to go Glen Rice on us, and put up 30 second half points, and lead Davidson to a rousing upset of sorts over Gonzaga (more on the 'Zags later). I think most fans would have been happy with that finish, only it was just an appetizer for what happened between the 'Toppers and the Bulldogs.

Drake somehow was able to pull their offense out of neutral and start a comeback that brought three's raining from the sky. Tying up the game and sending it to OT. I thought Drake had this one wrapped up when they got up by 4 late in the OT period. But then Ty Rodgers launced what seemed to be a 30 foot 3-pointer with three guys in his face, only to see it hit nothing but net. Truely remarkable how that game finished. If WKU can somehow be this years George Mason, and assuming they don't make another buzzer-beater, that shot will go down as one of the biggest in NCAA first round history.

Like the Davidson ending, I think most fans were now satisfied with their day of hoops. They saw two seeded upsets, two great comebacks, and a buzzer beater 3. What else could college basketball fans ask for. I guess we found out. Over the course of the next 9 hours we saw not just one, but two #4 seeds go down, and a #12 seed making another incredible comeback to cause another upset. In fact the second day of the first round created six seeded upsets, compared to the just two seeded upsets Thursday. Like I said, Friday March 21st might go down as the best day in first round history, but it all depends on how Sunday's second round games play out. However, we are assured at least two double digit seeds will play in the sweet 16. The good news about all of this, it doesn't matter how hard the selection committee tries to diminish the likelyhood of upsets, people will find a way.

That being said, what the hell UConn and Vandy? The players, coaches, fans, and conferences should be embarrased by your performances. There is no way in the world those teams should be playing anywhere near your level, at least that's what were told. I think those two games, along with the Duke/Belmont games show there isn't that big of a drop off as the "experts" like to tell you between the Big conferences and everyone else. It shows up in early season non-conference games, and if shows up in the NCAA tourney. I think it's time we give credit to these smaller conference schools, and show them a little respect in upcoming NCAA tourneys. Did Baylor, Arizona, and Kentucky really belong in the NCAA tourney over VCU a Illinois St. I think the answer to that question is NO!

All right, looking at my picks. If you were smart and followed my lead, you would be sitting very nicely heading into the second round. I've always said it's more important to have as many sweet 16 and elite 8 teams alive as possible, and heading into the weekend, I have 15 sweet 16 teams left and all my elite 8. Yeah there is probably a guy who picked that Siena game correctly, along with a couple of other upsets, but it'll all come down to who makes it out of this weekend.

Let's take a look at today's games. First off is Duke and West Virginia. I've got WVU, and I'll be honest, I'm not nervous about this one, WVU should win easily. KSU and Wisconsin, I've got Wisconsin, and I do think they pull out the victory. KSU played in the biggest hyped first round game in a long while, they have a letdown today. Xavier and Purdue: I'm still very confident in that Xavier pick. ND and Wazzu I'm nervous about. I had Winthrop in the first round upset, so obviously I went with ND in this one. I was impressed with Wazzu's showing, and this one I'm not too sure about anymore. Marquette and Stanford: Marquette should roll, and I expect them to. UNLV and Kansas should be a cake walk for KU if they play to their potential, and I think they will since Jayhawkers will be in abundance. UCLA should roll over A&M. To round out this evening.

So looking at the matchups for today, I'd be very disapointed if more than one of my picks came out the wrong way. They only one right now that I can live with is ND losing, but any of the other picks lose and I'm in trouble. Anyways enjoy today's action. I'll be enjoying the UNLV/KU and KSU/Wisconsin games live and in person in Omaha.

Watching two games at once (take 2)

Well it was a rather lackluster first round. Only one upset occured, and if you read my previous posts, you know Kansas St.'s victory over USC wasn't that big of a surprise. UCLA rolled, West Virginia took care of Arizona, Notre Dame made sure George Mason didn't have another great run, Wisconsin got a pretty good game out of Cal St. Fullerton, Pitt didn't have a problem with Oral Roberts, Stanford easily dispatched Cornell, and A&M survived against BYU.

I was wrong about the Wazzu/Winthrop game, probably the only one that looking back at my bracket I shouldn't have picked. However it doesn't hurt me too much, as I've got Notre Dame winning the second round matchup, more on first round losing picks later. If Kent St. would have played 30 minutes, instead of 20 against UNLV, the Golden Flashes would be in the second round, but if you aren't ready for the NCAA tourney, then you don't deserve to move on. Baylor put up a good fight, but when ever you give up 90 points in a ball game it's tough to make any sort of a comeback. That's the pick I'm most disturbed about, because Baylor has fought and scrapped all season long, and recieved an emotional lift, being the final team mentioned in the selection process. They've coem a long ways since their scandal a few years ago, and I thought they would carry that regular season momentum all the way into the post season. Guess I should have read more into that Big 12 loss to Colorado.

Now onto Duke. The Blue Devils have an angel on their shoulder. They have to. A loss to 15th seeded Belmont would have sent shockwaves through college bball, much the same way App St. defeated Michigan a few months ago. Don't forget, coach K was within a whisker from taking the LA Lakers job not that long ago, and since then, his teams have greatly underachieved. Since their last National Title in 2001, Duke has made one final four (2003), but hasn't made it past the sweet 16 in the other 5 previous tournaments, including last years loss to VCU. Now people may say that's pretty good, and it is, as I'm sure 95% of college basketball programs would take that in a heartbeat. However Duke should be held to a higher standard, partly because of their history, but mostly becaues of the national media coverage. Compare the six year stretch from 2002-2007, to the six year stretch that began the Duke love affair (86-91). In that first six year stretch Duke made five Final Fours, three Title games, and one National Championship. However during that period of time in the late 80's in early 90's Duke was a #1 seed just one time (1986). Compare that to this most recent six year run, and Duke has been a #1 seed 4 times, yet has just one Final Four to their credit. If you haven't figured it out by now, it means that Duke is OVERRATED, and last night's game, along with last years loss to VCU proved it.

I'm not a Duke hater, I enjoy watching their style of play. Coach K has always taken great basketball players, and for the most part, great role models. He may not be the classiest coach when at gametime, but off the court he is a good face for the sport. He's helped in bringing college basketball and the NCAA tourney into the national conscience, and he should be applauded for all of it. Anyone think it's any coincidence that before Duke became this nationdwide media darling, they struggled to get #1 seeds in the tourney, but since then the selection committee bends over backwards to get them set up for the Final Four? It's no coincidence, the committee knows exactly what they are doing. All that being said, I've got Duke losing in the second round, and fully expect that to happen, barring ACC ref's calling Saturday's game against WVU.

Now onto today's games. Most important game of the day in terms of brackets is 'Nova and Clemson. I chose 'Nova in this game, and have them in the sweet 16, so that will be the one I'll have my eye on the most, along with the Drake WKU game, as the Bulldogs are also in my sweet 16. Everything else should go chalk, and if for some reason Miami beat St. Mary's, or Gonzaga beats Davidson, or Oklahoma beats St. Joe's, I'm not going to worry about it that much. Reason is, my philosphy once the tourney begins, and I have all my selection made, that I only care about my sweet 16 and elite 8 teams winning. Like I said in an earlier post, it's nice to get that #15 beating a #2 correct, if you're lucky, but it won't mean much if you have two of your elite 8 teams losing in the first round. The pools are won and loss in the elite 8, and the longer you can have your 8 teams in tact the better. Yesterday I got three games wrong, good thing is, all three of those teams were losing in the second round.

Anyways, that's all for now. I'll actually get to watch basketball all afternoon and evening for a change. Enjoy the games.

Watching two games at once (take 1)

First of Kansas did what they were supposed to and beat up on Portland St. Didn't even give us a little chance of the monumental upset. I don't understand why the 16 seeds don't just chuck up as many 3's as possible. What makes them think they can win with ball movement and post play? Anyways, it'll take something inovative for that first 16 seed victory.

Michigan St. also did well. Temple gave them a game early on, but it seemed like Michigan St. was just able to handle what ever the Owls had. The Spartan lead just seemed to grow out of nowhere. A few years ago I noticed that Tom Izzo has a very underrated record in the NCAA's and since then I've been on his bandwagon when it comes to filling out my bracket.

Xavier though gave me my biggest cause for concern this early afternoon. Down by as many as 11 points in the second half, they still come back and win it by double digits. Georgia did get screwed over though when it comes to FT's, but watching most of the second half on TV instead of a computer screen, it did seem like the FT difference was justifiable. Still Georgia showed real guts and good team play. Still I'm glad Xavier won and kept my bracket in tact for now.

So after the first set of games I'm sitting at 3-0, but really most people should. Unfortantely I've got a baseball game to broadcast later this afternoon, so I won't be able to watch the late afternoon games, but I'll be back later tonight with more observations.

Here are my picks.

I don't have a fancy way of posting my bracket, as I'm rather new to blogging, so I'll just go ahead and seperate things out by region. Hopefully this turns out well. Anyways, I've taken into consideration everything that I've posted earlier on how to properly fill out the brackets, except for one thing, and I'll address that in the end. Anyways, here goes, first off with the East Region.

First Round
#1-UNC over #16 MSM
#9 Arkansas over #8 Indiana
*5 Notre Dame over #12 G. Mason
#13 Winthrop over #4 Wazzu
#11 St. Joe's over #6 OU
#3 Louisville over #14 Boise St.
#7 Butler over #10 S. Ala
#2 Tennessee over #15 American

Second Round
#1 UNC over #9 Aarkansas
#5 N.D. over #13 Winthrop
#3 Louisville over #11 St. Joe's
#2 Tenn over #7 Butler

Sweet 16
#1 UNC over #5 N.D.
#3 Louisville over #2 Tenn

Elite 8
#1 UNC over #3 Louisville

Midwest Region
First Round
#1 Kansas over #16 Portland St.
#9 Kent St. over #8 UNLV
#12 'Nova over #5 Clemson
#4 Vandy over #13 Siena
#11 Kansas St. over #6 USC
#3 Wisconsin over #14 Cal St. Ful
#10 Davidson over #7 Gonzaga (more on this one later)
#2 G. Town over #15 UMBC

Second Round
#1 Kansas over #9 Kent St.
#12 'Nova over #4 Vandy
#3 Wisconsin over #11 Kansas St.
#2 G. Town over # 10 Davidson

Sweet 16
#1 Kansas over #12 'Nova
#2 G. Town over #3 Wisconsin (more on this later)

Elite 8
#2 G. Town over #1 Kansas

South Region
First Round
#1 Memphis over #16 Tex-Alrington
#8 Miss St. over #9 Oregon
#5 Michigan St. over #12 Temple
#4 Pitt over #13 Oral Roberts
#6 Marquette over #11 Kentucky
#3 Stanford over #14 Cornell
#10 St. Mary's over #7 Miami
#2 Texas over #15 Austin Peay

Second Round
#1 Memphis over #8 Miss St.
#5 Michigan St. over #4 Pitt
#6 Marquette over #3 Stanford
#2 Texas over #10 St. Mary's

Sweet 16
#5 Michigan St. over #1 Memphis
#2 Texas over #6 Marquette

Elite 8
#2 Texas over #5 Michigan St.

West Region
First Round
#1 UCLA over #16 Miss Valley St.
#9 Texas A&M over #8 BYU
#5 Drake over #12 West. Kentucky
#4 Uconn over #13 San Diego
#11 Baylor over #6 Purdue
#3 Xavier over # 14 Georgia
#7 West Virginia over #10 Arizona
#2 Duke over #15 Belmont

Second Round
#1 UCLA over #9 Texas A&M
#5 Drake over #4 Uconn
#3 Xavier over #11 Baylor
#7 West Virginia over #2 Duke

Sweet 16
#1 UCLA over #5 Drake
#3 Xavier over #7 West Virginia

Elite 8
#1 UCLA over #3 Xavier

Final Four
#2 G. Town over #1 UNC
#1 UCLA over #2 Texas (more on that later)

Chamionship Game
#1 UCLA over #2 G. Town

That's how each one of my brackets sits. As you can see I took all my rules of thumb into play except for two occasions, and each time, I think I have a good reason not to. First my decision for G. Town to beat Wisconsin. While I think what Wisconsin has accomplished this season is pretty amazing, and they are playing close to home in the regionals (Detroit), I just feel like Georgetown is the better ball club. By then they would have beaten Davidson in their own backyard of sorts, and would have rolled through the Big East as the conference best team. I gave the edge to Georgetown, although slightly, as it goes against one of my rules of thumb, to select a "road" team to win in the Regional rounds.

Picking Davidson over Gonzaga. That one was tough for me. I told people to digest all available info on your bracket, and once I did, I realized Davidson was the team to go with. First of all, the game is in North Carolina, and second of all look at the time the game will be played. I'll give you a second to do that... The game takes place before 12:30pm CST, that means it starts before 10:30am on the West Coast. I doubt Gonzaga has played a game this early in the day, on a weekday no less. Advantages go to Davidson, and so does the game.

Picking UCLA over Texas in the Final Four again goes against my criteria, somewhat. I looked at "home" teams in the regionals, not in the Final Four. Had Texas been going up againt Georgetown, I think I would have selected Texas, but UCLA has been there and done that before, when it comes to playing in the Final Four. I went with experience over "home-court advantage" on this one.

Still if you look through the rest of my bracket, I went according to all the criteria. Only 3 #2 seeds reach the Sweet 16, I have a 13 beating a 4, two 11's beating 6's, I have 6 double digit teams winning their first round game (just one more than the avg, but after last years poor showing by the double digits, it has to even out), only one of those double digits reach the Sweet 16 which is about the average as well. my Final Four sum is less than 10, and I do have a #1 seed winning the title. All right, so the last one I'm sure just about everyone could have figured out by themselves.

So we'll see how it goes. The only part of the equation I'm worried about is picking Georgetown over Wisconsin in the Sweet 16. That's the only game on my bracket that I am truely nervous about, because it's the only one that I think makes or brakes my bracket. I was the only one in many of my pools to have the Hoyas reach the Final Four last season, so hopefully my faith in the dogs will work this year as well. Good luck, and I'll have a first round recap ready on Saturday.

More to the list!

I promised you more info on how to select the brackets and here it goes. First off with the huge disparity between #1 seeds and #2 seeds well here it is. Only 5 out of 32 times has the #1 seed not made the sweet 16, while 15 out of 32 times has the #2 seed not made it to the sweet 16 this decade. Look at that again, before you fill out your brackets. This decade, half of the time a #2 seed doesn't make the Sweet 16. If you have all 4 #2 seeds making to the Sweet 16, change at least one of them right now. Since the expansion to 64/65 teams you can count all the years 4 #2 seeds have made the Sweet 16 on one hand. That's over 20 years worth of tournaments. Again if you listen to and read the "experts" see how many of them have all 4 #2 seeds in the Sweet 16. However, don't get too carried away, but be sure to have one #2 seed get an early exit.

All right we've all heard of the famous 5/12 matchups, however another slightly less publicized matchup is the 6/11. Only one tournament this decade has not featured an 11 upsetting a 6, so be sure to have one of those. Also, don't be quick to write in 4 seeds as winners. At least one 13 seed has upset their first round opponent in 4 out of the previous 8 tournaments this decade. Don't get carried away with upsets after the first round. The year of the upset (2006) still had three #1 seeds in Elite 8, two #2 seeds and one #3 seed in #Elite 8. Find a team that's made a few NCAA appearances in a row, but are low seeds. Best example of this is Vermontin 2005. They were a 16 seed in 2003, a 15 seed in 2004, then in 2005 as a 14 seed knocked off Syracuse. Other good examples are Manhattan, Butler, and Winthrop more recently.

When you get to the regionals (sweet 16, and elite 8) take a look at where the game will be held and who's playing where. If a team is playing close to home, go with them, the odds are in yourfavor. Best examples of this is 2006 LSU won the South Region played in Atlanta, UCLA won the west Region in Oakland, and George Mason won the East Region in D.C. In 2003 Syracuse won the East Regionin Albany, NY, Marquette won the Midwest Region in Minneapolis, and Texas won the South Region in San Antonio. Yes teams have lost Elite 8 games that are close to their home, but odds are on the side ofteams close to home winning. Again, treate your bracket like a roullette wheel. You may have a feeling about a certain team, but go with the odds more often than not. Finally make the National Champion at least a 4 seed, but more perferably a 1 seed, as since 1990 12 #1 seeds have won the tourney. Again that's well over 50%.

I'll post my predictions Wednesday evening. If you've made out your brackets and have them submitted to online pools, go back and look them over again, and once again, be sure to take into account location, date and time. All of those are bigger factors than you may realize.

1 out of 18,446,744,073,709,551,616

That's techincally the odds of getting your NCAA bracket 100% correct. If you just take out the play in game, that # drops in half to something around 9,000,000,000,000,000,000. Needless to say, it'll take a lot of work, and luck, to get all 63/64 games correct, and win that million dollar prize on some websites. I can't promise a perfect bracket, but I can promise some interesting insight in how to select your winners. Don't expect the same ole cliche's you hear on ESPN or on any of the major sports websites. I took a bit more of a detailed look at the NCAA tournament in a # of areas. First of look below for a table that goes back to the 1985 tournament. I looked at the number of double digit seeded teams winning their first round games, the number of double digit seeds in the Sweet 16, and the sum of all Final 4 teams' seed.


year 1st rd upsets double digit seeds in s16 sum of f4 teams
2007 2 0 6
2006 8 2 20
2005 5 2 11
2004 3 1 8
2003 5 2 9
2002 7 3 9
2001 8 3 7
2000 3 2 22
avgs. 5.1 1.8 11.5
1999 6 4 7
1998 8 3 9
1997 5 3 7
1996 6 1 11
1995 6 0 9
1994 5 2 8
1993 4 1 5
1992 5 1 13
1991 8 3 7
1990 5 3 12
avgs 5.8 2.1 8.8
1989 6 1 9
1988 4 2 10
1987 6 2 10
1986 5 3 15
1985 5 3 12
avg 5.2 2.2 11.2\

As you can see, the number of double digit seeds winning their first round games stays very close to 5 every year. The highest it's ever been is 8 which has only happened 4 times in the past 20+ years. I did the sweet 16 to show that although upsets are a vital part of the NCAA tourney, very few upsets occur after the first weekend, and obviously by the fact on average 2 double digit seeded teams make the sweet 16, upsets are very rare after the first round.

So go back and look at your bracket again, and see just how many double digit seeds you have making it to round 2. Now look at your final 4 teams, and notice that in the history of the 64/65 team field, only 4 times has the sum of the seeds been in the teens or higher. Meanwhile it's been in the single digits 13 times, over half the time.

If you are playing for money, you have to look at your bracket the same way you'd look at a roulette wheel. If at any time you could get better than 50 percent odds at the roulette table, of course you'd take it. Yeah it's fun to pick upsets, but if you really want to win your pool, you should go with the odds each and every time. Also, keep in mind if you are playing a sliding scale scoring margin, i.e. first round correct picks are worth 1 pt, second round picks are worth 2pts, sweet sixteen correct picks are worth 4 pts, elite 8 correct picks are worth 8 points, final four correct picks are worth 16 points, and the title game winner is worth 32, or some variation, that it's better to have your elite 8 and on as upset free as possible, because that's where the points come in. Yeah the not so sports savy people will be impressed with the dude who picks Belmont to beat Duke, but odds are his Elite 8 and on will be pretty crappy, and that's where the pool is won and lost. I would suggest however to not participate in a pool where the points are based off seeding. As in picking a 15 to beat a 2 is worth more than picking a 10 to beat a 7. The reason for that is, you could possibly have the highest number of correct games picked, but actually lose, because someone got lucky, picked a first weekend chalked full of upsets, and the ones they picked all came true.

Later on today I'll be adding some more interesting tidbits of information, and one that truly blew me away concerning the huge difference between #1 and #2 seeds, and how succesful they are in the tournament.

64 games!

Well, it's out! The field of 65 has been released, and by now I'm sure most people have painstakingly looked over who's going to win that first round matchup between Kent St. and UNLV. As if if people can tell you anything substantial about either of the two teams., like for instance Kent St.'s mascot. Anyways, the best sporting event in the country begins Tuesday night in a rather lackluster way, with the Opening Round game.

In all, I think the committee did a decent job. I'm not going to believe the selection process is as grueling as they say. These dozen or so people stay in a 5 star hotel, secluded from society pampered like you wouldn't believe for a week, and get paid for it. It's not like they show up Saturday afternoon after a wild Friday night, and see an empty bracket in front of them. No, these folks have a pretty decent idea who's in, and who's going where by the time they get to the weekend. Their toughest decision is selecting the final 2 or 3 teams to get at large berths, but I have a feeling their unspoken motto is, "When in doubt, don't pick a mid-major". The selection committee had a stroke of genius when they allowed sports writers to "simulate" the process in February. They give the writers about a tenth of the actual time it takes to get a bracket out, and get them to think it's a much more difficult process than it actually is. Think about it. The committee meets at least a week prior to selection Sunday, and all they have to do is watch basketball and crunch numbers. It's amazing how this is such a hard process, yet they have the field figured out less than an hour after the final conference tournament title game is concluded.

Now as far as the bracket, it does seem like their motto held true this year. I won't for a second believe there was much of a difference between VCU, and Illinois St. compared to 'Nova, Oregon, and Arizona, except for the most obvious, the percieved power of their conferences. My feeling is, if you've got double digit losses on the season, and in conference games (including conference tournaments) then it probably means you aren't worthy of getting an at-large bid. Anyone who doesn't like that line of thinking needs to convince me otherwise. I am glad however the committee gave recognition to Drake as a 5 seed, only to pit them against a team with 28 wins on the season. Again, the committee showed it's true colors with that decision, and the decision to give Butler a 7 seed, with their opponent being another mid-major. Make no mistake folks, the committee has put the cap on non-BCS at large's to 6. Now that C-USA has become a 1 bid league, 6 at large bids will be the norm. I'm sure if you're a BCS conference fan you love it, as for me, I'd rather see a 20+ win VCU or Illinois St. team get a shot, rather than give BCS teams the benefit of the doubt.

Stay tuned for my breakdown of how to make bracket selections. I've gone back and done some research, in some aspects back to 1990 looking for trends. Also, if you filled out your brackets first thing yesterday evening, go back and look at it again. Take a few moments and digest all the information available to you. Look at the location of the game, time of the game, and what day they are playing on. For instance, don't believe the hype about Georgia. Anyone who picked them to upset Xavier needs to breathe and stop listening to ESPN. Georgia plays on a Thursday, and is the first game out of the gate.

BTW, take my advice on not listening to ESPN as you go through your brackets. They are paid to pick the favorites, and act like a 10 beating a 7 is a monumental upset. I'll give you a little preview of what's to come tomorrow. If you see any so called "expert" take 3 #1 seeds to the final 4 (no "expert" is dumb enough to pick all 4 #1 seeds, although deep down they really want to), right away put your TV on mute. since 1990 3 #1 seeds have made the final 4 just three times, and hasn't happened this decade.

That's all for now. Like I said tune in tomorrow for some interesting bits of info I've compiled regarding how NCAA tournaments play out.

Most wonderful time of the year!

I think any true sports fan feels the month of March is mabe the most wonderful time of the year, especially living in the midwest. There's buzz everywhere sports wise. High School basketball championships, college basketball conference tournaments, spring training baseball, and the best sports tournament in the country, the NCAA tournament. Also, finally the cold winter is coming to an end. Perhaps the only month in the year that can top the month of March is October.

Now onto the NCAA tournament. Check back in Tuesday March 18th for my detailed way of filling out your brackets. I'm not going to spew the same old crap (like don't choose 4 #1 seeds for the final four, etc.). Instead I'll be taking a look at some of the more obscure parts of filling out a bracket, like how major conference teams who reach their tournament finals do in the NCAA tourney, how many double digit seeds reach the Sweet 16, and just how many seeded upsets you should choose in the first round, among others.

As it stands, I'm a huge supporter of mid-major teams, and feel a mid-major (a term I hate to use) that finishes the season 24-7, for example, should be in over a major conference team that finishes 20-11, if all RPI type #'s come out equal. I get sick and tired of teams like Syracuse, Maryland, NC State, etc just doing enough to get in, while teams like Utah St., Missouri St., VCU, do more than enough to get in, but get passed over. We've heard for years the selection committee does not take conference affiliation into consideration when filling out the official bracket. We'll see this year if that is true, and I love it. The West Coast Conference deserves 3 bids (Gonzaga, St. Mary's, San Diego), MVC deserves 2 (Drake, Illinois St.), Sun Belt deserves 2 bids (Western Kentucky, South Alabama), A-10 deserves at least 2 bids (Xavier, and who ever makes the finals), and should Kent St lose in the MAC tourney, that conference should get two bids. It's a big year for the selection committee to live up to it's words, and give due recognition for the mid-major teams who work the entire season to build an impressive resume, only to lose a tough game in the conference tourney, instead of allowing a pass to a major school who won just enough games.

Anyways, my winner of the Big 12 tourney is Texas. My upset special is Tex A&M making all the way to the conference finals, which means beating Iowa St., K-State, and KU. This gets A&M into the NCAA tourney.

2008 Dream Team

I quickly came to the realization this past fall that the KMZU Dream Team is a big deal. All it took was a mix up on the date to hold the football banquet, and it seemed like all hell had broken loose. I thought football was a big event, but basketball is twice as big, if not more. Twice as many schools to get into contact with, and what seemed like hundreds of ballots all factoring into the team. But in the end it's about recognizing those student-athletes who performed at a higher level all season long, and helped to lead their team on the court, and hopefully off it as well. Here's the link to this years basketball Dream Team. I'm sure people will feel some players were left off the team that deserved to be on there. Anyways here's the link.

http://www.kmzu.com/sports/2008%20bb%20dream%20team.pdf

Congrats to all the players selected to this years team, as it was the opposing coaches who voted on what players made the teams.

My first time

Well, this is going to be something new I'm going to try from here on out. Hopefully to help get more sports talk going, and help make the sports department a little more interactive with our station's listners. I'll blog about anything from high school sports, all the way up to world sports like the Olympics. I'll usually try to keep it as sports related as possible, and try to keep it as timely and focused on our area. Feel free to pass along your opinions on the subjects I write about. My opinions are just as right (or wrong) as yours, so don't hold back.