1 out of 18,446,744,073,709,551,616

That's techincally the odds of getting your NCAA bracket 100% correct. If you just take out the play in game, that # drops in half to something around 9,000,000,000,000,000,000. Needless to say, it'll take a lot of work, and luck, to get all 63/64 games correct, and win that million dollar prize on some websites. I can't promise a perfect bracket, but I can promise some interesting insight in how to select your winners. Don't expect the same ole cliche's you hear on ESPN or on any of the major sports websites. I took a bit more of a detailed look at the NCAA tournament in a # of areas. First of look below for a table that goes back to the 1985 tournament. I looked at the number of double digit seeded teams winning their first round games, the number of double digit seeds in the Sweet 16, and the sum of all Final 4 teams' seed.


year 1st rd upsets double digit seeds in s16 sum of f4 teams
2007 2 0 6
2006 8 2 20
2005 5 2 11
2004 3 1 8
2003 5 2 9
2002 7 3 9
2001 8 3 7
2000 3 2 22
avgs. 5.1 1.8 11.5
1999 6 4 7
1998 8 3 9
1997 5 3 7
1996 6 1 11
1995 6 0 9
1994 5 2 8
1993 4 1 5
1992 5 1 13
1991 8 3 7
1990 5 3 12
avgs 5.8 2.1 8.8
1989 6 1 9
1988 4 2 10
1987 6 2 10
1986 5 3 15
1985 5 3 12
avg 5.2 2.2 11.2\

As you can see, the number of double digit seeds winning their first round games stays very close to 5 every year. The highest it's ever been is 8 which has only happened 4 times in the past 20+ years. I did the sweet 16 to show that although upsets are a vital part of the NCAA tourney, very few upsets occur after the first weekend, and obviously by the fact on average 2 double digit seeded teams make the sweet 16, upsets are very rare after the first round.

So go back and look at your bracket again, and see just how many double digit seeds you have making it to round 2. Now look at your final 4 teams, and notice that in the history of the 64/65 team field, only 4 times has the sum of the seeds been in the teens or higher. Meanwhile it's been in the single digits 13 times, over half the time.

If you are playing for money, you have to look at your bracket the same way you'd look at a roulette wheel. If at any time you could get better than 50 percent odds at the roulette table, of course you'd take it. Yeah it's fun to pick upsets, but if you really want to win your pool, you should go with the odds each and every time. Also, keep in mind if you are playing a sliding scale scoring margin, i.e. first round correct picks are worth 1 pt, second round picks are worth 2pts, sweet sixteen correct picks are worth 4 pts, elite 8 correct picks are worth 8 points, final four correct picks are worth 16 points, and the title game winner is worth 32, or some variation, that it's better to have your elite 8 and on as upset free as possible, because that's where the points come in. Yeah the not so sports savy people will be impressed with the dude who picks Belmont to beat Duke, but odds are his Elite 8 and on will be pretty crappy, and that's where the pool is won and lost. I would suggest however to not participate in a pool where the points are based off seeding. As in picking a 15 to beat a 2 is worth more than picking a 10 to beat a 7. The reason for that is, you could possibly have the highest number of correct games picked, but actually lose, because someone got lucky, picked a first weekend chalked full of upsets, and the ones they picked all came true.

Later on today I'll be adding some more interesting tidbits of information, and one that truly blew me away concerning the huge difference between #1 and #2 seeds, and how succesful they are in the tournament.